Unfortunately I’ve been sick all week so there’s been no painting. Next week is also going to be lousy for painting as works sending me to NZ. However, I’ve been doing some more playing with Dropzone Commander unit statistics. This time, I’ve compared the core AA units for each faction: the UCM Rapier, the PHR Phobos, the Scourge Reaper and the Shaltari Kukri.

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In a previous life I did a lot of mathematics, and sometimes I turn this to productive use. Other times I turn it towards miniature gaming. Now, when a lot of people try to analyse games they typically calculate the expectation for an outcome and compare that. Expectation is one way of looking at probability, particularly if you run a casino or lottery. However, if your experience of the probability is going to be a couple of hundred events (like in a game of something) then it’s awful. As guess what – the expectation is unlikely to come true. Some examples of the failure of expectation: a dice roll gives you 3.5, your pay-off from the lottery is about 50c for every $ you put in and everyone has 1 testicle. What we’re going to look at is the probability of what you want happening, which is harder to calculate, but much more useful.

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